 |
|
© GIF: CIMSS
Super Typhoon Maria churning near the Ryukyu Islands.
|
By
Brian Kahn, Earther
I think it’s time to retire Maria as a name for any storm. The name
has been wiped from the hurricane list in the Atlantic after Hurricane
Maria completely
upended life in the Caribbean. But it’s still on the rolls in the Pacific, where Typhoon Maria is about to make life miserable.
[post_ads]The
storm has ping-ponged between being the equivalent of a Category 4 and
Category 5 storm since late last week. Maria could clip Japan’s Ryukyu
Islands and Taiwan before slamming into China’s central coast on
Wednesday, dumping heavy rains along the way. That could be a huge issue
in Japan, which is already
reeling from historic flooding that’s
left at least 109 dead and 2 million ready evacuate.
As
of Monday, Maria was spinning as a strong Category 4 storm about 300
miles from Okinawa with sustained winds of nearly 143 mph, according to
the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Gusts are even more potent, reaching
an estimated 174 mph. The current buzzsaw of a storm is a far cry from
where it was on Thursday, when it was just a tropical storm with winds
around 70 mph.
From
Thursday to Friday, the storm exploded. Warm waters and calm upper
levels winds allow the storm to blow up to a Category 5 monster with 160
mph winds in 24 hours. In meteorological parlance, the storm underwent
rapid intensification, which weather geeks define as a storm’s winds
increasing 35 mph in a 24-hour period. Maria more than met the
criteria.
The storm weakened a bit over the course of Friday and
into Saturday before picking steam again on Sunday and reaching Category
5 status for the second time in its lifespan. From here on out, the
storm is likely to hold steady and then slowly decay as it approaches
land and upper level winds become more inhospitable to the storm’s
structure and rotation.
But even as it weakens, Maria will remain
dangerous. By tomorrow evening, it’s forecast to reach southern end of
the Ryukyu Islands, a small archipelago on the southern edge of Japan.
At that time Maria is forecast to have 130 mph winds, which are the
equivalent of a strong Category 3 hurricane. Up to eight inches of rain
could fall as well.
Japan is already struggling to respond to
flooding throughout the central and western part of Honshu, the
country’s main island. Any damage in far flung parts of of the Ryukyu
Islands will only stretch resources further.
The storm is forecast
to remain a Category 3 as it passes near the northern edge of Taiwan on
Wednesday as well. Even if Maria doesn’t make landfall there, it’s
likely to drop up to 12 inches of rain over the hilly terrain. That same
terrain will also weaken the storm further, and it’s forecast to be a
Category 1-equivalent storm at landfall in China.
A study
published in 2016
showed that typhoons hitting Asia over the past 37 years—a period of
reliable satellite records—have become up to 15 percent more intense and
the “proportion of storms of categories 4 and 5 having doubled or even
tripled.” That change is largely driven by rapid intensification
becoming more common owing to rising ocean temperatures. The research
indicates that climate change will only make this trend more common for
storms in the vicinity of China, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea.
Climate change could also be playing a role in the increase in rapid intensification for hurricanes in the Atlantic basin
according to other research, making coastal living an increasingly risky bet.
[post_ads_2]
COMMENTS